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tv   Countdown to the Closing Bell  FOX Business  October 12, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

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the last hour of trading. count down to the closing bell begins. great news the consumer could not expect in these markets. you felt the best you felt in five years? the preliminary reading of the university of michigan consumer sentiment dates for october shows it rose to 83 points, highest level since september of 2007. right off the bat without its session highs of 75 points but we lost pretty much all of the deans. major indices are on track to end the week lower. we are keeping our eyes on the nasdaq which is on track to end lower for the sixth consecutive day. longest losing streak in a year. breaking news right now. for treasury department releasing budget numbers for the 2012 year and that is deficit included. peter barnes has the news. peter: the deficit exceeded $1 trillion for the fourth fiscal year and a row coming in at $1.1 trillion for fiscal 2012
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which ended september 30th that was down $200 billion from fiscal 2011 thanks to higher tax revenue because of a stronger economy nd some lower spending, $60 million year over year and those numbers are down from the record $1.4 trillion in deficits we saw in 2009. we like to give you the monthly number for september. last month of the fiscal year. here's something you don't see every way. a surplus of $75 billion compared to a deficit of $73 billion in september last year. that is mainly due to accounting items, the biggest one being a shift in $60 billion in government benefit payments for social security and medicare and other things into august's of this year because of weekends and holidays in september. the administration is projecting a end to this trillion dollar trend for this fiscal year,
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2013, budget forecasts projecting a deficit for 2013 of 990 one billion dollars. liz: a top $1 trillion for the fourth year roebuck monthly there's a surplus? we are looking for grain shoots. is that the start of a trend possibly? >> no. no. if we are looking at a 990 one billion dollar deficit for 2013, we are still going to have a lot of red ink. the september thing, lot of it was accounting changes and shifts september 1st on a saturday, labor day was monday, and 990 one billion dollars, this is the $9 billion mistake somewhere, you are at $1 trillion for the fifth year in a row. [talking over each other] >> $9 billion mistake.
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liz: let's find out how traders are watching the floor and see how things are reacting. we go to the stock exchange, cme group and imax. how can we make a big deal of this? the dow was of three points and now down 5. gold is not moving and oil pretty much the same. when i say gold is not moving it is down 14 what the u.s. the trader think of these numbers? does it affect going forward as far as equity is concerned? >> these are numbers that are well anticipated and telegraph through the marketplace, nothing surprising. the up side if you want to take something from it is a positive downward trend of the shrinking deficit from 1.4 down two hundred, twenty%, break below a trillion if we get a chance to end the last war we have been in over a decade that will have a major impact on as well. these are election-year numbers and the market yawns at some
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quite frankly. liz: the markets are up 19% for the s&p and the nasdaq regardless. it doesn't affect the psychology too much. what about oil? going into the weekend as the weather gets colder we are looking at more usage on some level. natural gas not doing much. forward to monday, what we look for next week? >> we are a sideways motion for crude oil. we have economic data worldwide coming out on the weak side with the exception of what happened today and not having much impact on crude oil because we have middle eastern tensions with turkey and syria so looks to me they are -- the marketplace is saying i am waiting to see what happens. there is bad stuff happening in the middle east, they will take a. of the economic data keep coming out of work, take it down. i'm looking below 90. we go to 86. above 94 we go to 97. i'm waiting for one of those we to break outs.
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liz: we will remember those levels. let's go to the chicago mercantile exchange. you heard the discussion which is not much. if i am looking at my money seeing what direction it is going in in this final hour of the week when we have not seen exciting trades at all, the start looking forward to next week and start looking for the fact the we are closer to an election or more economic data to give us guidance? >> you are correct on that. a lot of action will happen next week but we tested the 1420 level in the s&p which is a huge level on the chicago mercantile exchange floor. if we go below that, three months support to 1405 in the s&p so close to a technical capitulation and look for a sell-off if we don't close above the 1425 level monday. liz: we are above that which is a bullish sign.
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>> absolutely. 1430 is great and we had yields constantly coming down on the floor. when they had at 1.75 marks. we can build 1.7 next week, i have confidence the stock market can go higher. liz: everyone watching the 1435 or 1430 level. have a great weekend. joining us on the floor show our super smart traders. we love them but the financial sector, hard to love that. worst performing sector today. but the best of the year. one of the top holdings of my next guest who is here to tell us why. specific way to look at financials. the chief investment strategist joining me for the last hour and a fox business exclusive. you have been around wall street block many times. how does this time in this part of the year field you? is it particularly worrisome or you should have expected october would be rough?
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after a great august and really good september. >> october spooks me no matter what so i am nervous but we have on top of this a mixed season coming in in the middle of a cyclical recovery that is not that strong. you have to be nervous. don't put your new money to work but watch how this plays out. this earnings malaise continues to get worse i think you got to stay out of the market for a while. the cycle is intact and we will be pulled through by housing. liz: you say -- university of michigan consumer sentiment report is the preliminary part of october survey, the best in five years. >> that is right the consumer is being threatened by energy. we just heard the story about energy. demand is falling but we have rising prices. this is a big risk to consumer. [talking over each other] >> something is going on.
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speculation in the marketplace. liz: when we look at your biggest holdings, you have a lot of real-estate, real-estate investment, you also have financials, not necessarily the big names. >> regional money center banks rather than major money-center banks like stalin and new york looking at local guys, regionals. they're starting to lend again in the mortgage markets and making a nice spread. i got a call the other night that someone called me for the first time in five years saying the one the home-equity loan? liz: a smaller bank? >> it was a smaller bank. liz: i could get city to modify my mortgage but they told me -- big boys are all scared and hold their money close to their vests. we will be lending. >> this is how they make money and their spreads are starting to widen and they are starting to make money again and -- they still make a spread on this but
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the big money-center banks usually make money on extending asset bases and they are not seeing that demand now. liz: tim does not look at a specific level. you look at a peak to trough move. where are we? >> nowhere near where we should be. this market has lagged. typically at this point the markets are 120%. we are 100% from that. liz: what you mean not where we should be? >> when you go through a whole cycle market's rise 188%. we had a deep low last time. earnings have risen but the market has not kept pace. that is my point. liz: i am not hearing you say be all in. >> i would not be all in. i am nervous particularly bond markets have me spooked. i am more worried how this earnings story plays out in the third quarter ended is really margins. margins are near a cyclical peak. we don't want to see them fall to because that would signal a
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weakening economy. liz: jim will tell you which sectors to get out of and which ones to go into. don't end on a preposition. stay tuned. he will name his favorite sectors and ones where he says you should stay away. closing bell ringing in 51 minutes. he purchased a hawaiian island and now larry ellison could be making an expensive play to bring pro football back to los angeles. get a piece of a few other teams and then use. i have been too a few raiders games in my lifetime. we need a new team. the story on fox business coming up.
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melissa: coca-cola bottling co. shares of the coke bottler jumping 6%. not a bad move. they announced plans to move their headquarters to switzerland and there it begins. they're moving out of greece and moving elsewhere. it will be in london. shares of coca-cola held their value even though the stock market value has been cut in half since the beginning of the
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euro crisis. the stock is up 22% this year alone. some fear last year looking good now. let's look at dollar tree getting a downgrade and details from lauren simonetti at the stock exchange. >> yesterday's they came out and said they would report sales numbers at the low end of expectations. stock sold off 7% yesterday down another 4%. jeffries made some comments on the stock downgrading saying they're seeing weakness in their food business and competition from wal-mart to open smaller stores across the country. that is hurting dollar tree. also you would think this is the time the uncertainty is really high. customers would go to dollar tree but it is not happening. they're concerned about the uncertainty and higher gas prices. dollar tree is a big loser.
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liz: the $0.99 only stores trying to get on rodeo drive in beverly hills? we will weigh in on that on neil cavuto being a former beverly hills -- >> the we have to wait until later? >> people in beverly hills law that the two year what neil cavuto says at 6:00 eastern. thanks. let's check--who doesn't like to deal? $0.99 only. let's take up with the team. find out what everybody is watching. robert gray, dennis kneale, jeff flock in the pits of the cme. cocoa looking pretty decent today. jeff: that was one of the only things that looked decent. everything from gasoline which is good but ours was down 2%.
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oil off today but closed the week wind and better than we thought. corn was off after profittaking yesterday on news that was worse than we thought and gold pretty flat today. you can't talk about this without the presidential election and the debate in all that. you may agree point. >> the outcome of the election on the presidential side on its own probably less significant than the entire route, taking into account the house and the senate. whether you have a lame-duck president or lame-duck congress that wants to get something done, nevertheless it is the certainty factor after the election. >> will that help the economy either way? >> it will help investors make decisions about the future in a more informed way and they can now. >> we are treading water? >> we would be trading water with volatility mixed in. it is october.
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>> what do you think? >> i want to know who your favorite nfl team is. >> my favorite? will make it out of here alive if i say the giants for the packers? liz: the traders are ready to do that. dennis kneale has the story. i used to go to the l.a. rams way back in the day and then the raiders. pathetic that l a doesn't have a football team but dennis kneale telling us larry ellison maybe our favorite. >> 1995. bill clinton was president, seinfeld was top-rated tv show and that was the last time the city of l.a. could claim an nfl team of its own. bill haas not one team that two. the raiders and the other team -- lost my place -- the rams. now larry ellison talking about buying the sports teams and then
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use owned by -- a move by alison to bring an nfl franchise back to los angeles and a stake in the l.a. lakers and in the n.b.a. he owns hockey teams, soccer's galaxy, 100 venues and the word is a line up like crazy now that he wants to sell. real-estate holdings, a key assets, so who might other bidders be? you have the biotech billionaire, a controversial figure is interested and made the honor of the vancouver canucks who said he might be a possible bidder cannot and ron burke who was kind enough to respond when we were texting and stopped short of admitting he would like to be involved but he does say this. basically everybody here wants the team in l.a. and you got to wonder what teams. san diego chargers might be a key possibility or maybe even
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moving the oakland raiders back to l.a.. >> marcus allen and donkeys williams? this is 100 years ago. anybody, we will take any of those. i am thinking ron because he is from l.a. and let's hope. text him back and say we want you. >> let me get to robert gray. whether you're big names? it is earnings season. what should we watch for? one of the biggest and most important names? >> take a look at some of these guys. 81 companies reporting, 16% of the s&p 500, text box, heavy hitters, they announced disappointing revenue. they are getting hit once again today. google and intel and microsoft
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on tap next week. keep an eye on those guys. we just got started. bank of america, citigroup, morgan sacks, more. chips coming your way and consumer groups, coke and pepsi and mcdonald's and a veritable picnic. a hodgepodge, general electric, travelers and the most recent addition, united healthcare. liz: deegan jones, some of these guys were huge. >> marilyn olsen was fantastic. pro ball almost every year. what led him to the superbowl -- imagine this san diego chargers and the rams. >> nobody -- forget it. i have been there. parking on people's front lawns. it is time. bring back an nfl team.
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we really appreciate it. closing bell ringing in 39 minutes. dow jones industrials clinging to a five point gain. charlie gasparino, breaking news on the rate manipulation scandal. he has the story and investigation which he says are far from over.
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you see us, at the start of the day. on the company phone list that's a few names longer. you see us bank on busier highways. on thon once empty fields. that's a few names longer. everyday you see all the ways all of us at us bank are helping grow our economy. lending more so companies and communities can expand,
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grow stronger and get backo work. everyday you see all of us serving you, around the country, around the corner. us bank. liz: congressional investigation of the london interbank offered rate and whether regulators including treasury secretary tim geithner did enough to stop it is heating up again. charlie gasparino has the latest. the title wasn't in there. charlie: when looking at his
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actions when he was new york fed president, what happened was in 2007-2008 he was alerted banks like barkleys which settles $415 million and the ceo stepped out, he was alerted at that time and what did he do? when did he know it? this will come out. the house financial service committee is doing an investigation..o cf1 o he asked for documents and sources close to the committee tell the fox business network those documents may be released as early as monday. the fed does this, he was head of the new york fed asking for that request from the fed, the fed releases it on its web site. here's what they have asked for. who knows? they have asked for what did you do in terms of what you were told and he was told several times in 2007-2008 that they were being manipulated. if you can't trust them, it is one of the base rates of everything, credit cards,
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homeless, it is supposed to be a real measurement -- the wendy lading down during the financial crisis. they asked him when you found out about this, did you go to the u.k. regulators? did you tell the sec? did you tell the justice department? this is manipulation that has the smell of illegality, criminal stuff. what did you do in terms of alerting other regulators? we are going to find a little more detail on that. it will be great reading. as early as monday we have the quote from the new york fed. it is coming out some time soon. they're telling me some times that it is money and one of the good things is they don't give it to the committee. they put it on its web site. we will be checking the web site and it could be interesting. tim geithner is the treasury secretary. he has come under a lot of
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criticism for not doing enough. is an election year where you judge the people the president works with, whether they have core competency. tim geithner has been controversial over the last four years. he is stepping down and whether it is the second -- he has -- some things he has done well and some he hasn't. i don't criticize him so much on bailing out the banks. that is where he gets the most criticism. he handed them too much money. that was a panic. when people panic you do things which i criticized his handling of the u.s. economy. he should know the stuff president obama tried to do with rising unemployment. a guy who worked at the fed issued no you don't propose health care when unemployment is not going down sufficiently. that is a drag on business and something even larry think of black rock, on the phone with him all the time, is gone public
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and said he supports president obama but the health care plan is that on business. this is my problem with tim geithner. i have issues with his core competency involving the economy. it will be interesting to see what he did. why wouldn't tim geithner step in and report those banks manipulating rates down? look at the new york fed chairman, new york said president, monitoring the bank and overseen the banks and he is worried they are paying too much interest-rate. he had an incentive to allow them to manipulate it down. liz: this roman gabriel mean anything to you? charlie: he was a quarterback for the rams. i remember him because there was another guy named jim kids -- joe's was quarterback for vikings. [talking over each other] charlie: they had some legendary
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shootouts. -- [talking over each other] liz: good bye. it was a big week on countdown to the closing bell in case you missed anything here. here is a look at the week's biggest movers and shakers joining us. >> when you look at the data the last couple months where there has not been disappointed is u.s. centric data and u.s. employment, u.s. retail sales, auto sales. it is a sign of the consumer doing better than expected and anything tied to housing will surprise you. we are viewing it as most people expect inflation. if we have another recession, laudable but they're willing to admit, there will be a deflationary scenario which means the price of everything will fall like oil and cotton. >> it is time for me to move on and putting new person in and rework -- have a solid board with more experience. we have it down to three people now and hopefully in the next 60
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days we will make an announcement and have somebody in, thanksgiving to january 1st. >> we are doing well. we were able to grow in 2010 even when the housing market was down, 2011 when the housing market is down and now we are starting to actually see it is not a recovery but a falling out. >> interesting part of home depot is if you go back to 2006 and look at our sales in 2006 and the end of 2009, we are $13 billion smaller from 2006-2009. there are very few companies in the world that can survive that loss in revenue and still invest in the business and be as strong as home depot. liz: frank blake telling us exclusively he is going to prove the analysts who don't believe in this company or think it will stumble wrong. roman gabriel is right.
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it was norman that i was thinking of. i don't know. charlie: generation before that. the 50s. you are dating yourself. liz: just trying to get out it. [talking over each other] liz: closing the ringing in 28 minutes. bring back a football team to al a. carry a pharmaceuticals be bringing us the next miracle drug? investors seem to think so and the fda is fast tracking those because they say it is needed now. the stock of boards of 140% year over year. the chairman and ceo, dr. harvey berger joining me. find out how close he is to fda approval and how these drugs -- there's more than one -- are being fast track and how they could be real game changers. i've been a superintendent for 30 some years at many
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and help you find the aarp medicare supplement plan that's right for you. >> i' i'm robert gray with your fox business brave. federal budget deficit topped the $1 trillion mark for the fourth straight year. the deficit $207 billion less than last year. the congressional budget office estimates close to 7% of our nations gross domestic product. meanwhile, apple expected to unveil its mini ipad at an invitation-only event october 23 according to all things digital. days before microsoft unveiled a new surface tablet and operating system windows 8. there has been much speculation apple was planning a smaller, less expensive version of its popular ipad. lowe's stock on the rise after ubf confirmed that by rating. seeing a growing housing market
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in turn would help drive earnings higher. continuing our "countdown to the closing bell" with liz claman. liz: one day after its ipo, shares of one company workday are up big. when you look at a company that does these things and has a good product in a good service, that is all it takes. lauren: it is actually the biggest tech ipo since facebook went public back in may. workday having a fantastic day, surging 78% right now. a really pretty logo. just under $50, the software company, the market cap about $4.5 billion, so a great day for
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investors. liz: it has been a great couple of years for my next business. could a numerical cancer drug be available on the market as early as next year? ariad pharmaceutical drugs are on the fast track to approval. up more than 140% year-over-year. dr. harvey berger, ariad pharmaceutical's chairman, founder, ceo joining us exclusively for details on the extraordinary drug that hopes to hit shelves through doctors in q1. your next drug is a lung cancer drug that doesn't have a name, 113? >> right. any medicine for patients with lung cancer. lung cancer is still the number one cause of cancer death in men and women. liz: number one? >> number one in terms of men and women, more than breast
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cancer. although there are more cases of breast cancer, we have done less in breast cancer. cancer doctors are looking at lung cancer more from a genetic point of view not saying are you a smoker or not, but what sort of genetics do you have in cancer itself and personalizing the therapy like our new drug. liz: these are tumors, but what would show promise to the point of the fta will fast-track it, getting success. >> don't know how the fda will look from 113, but the community is excited about the results, we present result the results a cof weeks back in europe the first clinical data, take for example one of the genetic markets, a subset of these genetic forms of lung cancer and virtually every
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patient that retreated whether they were at the beginning of treatment had a response. the tumor shrank, patients felt better and even if they had tumors that had spread to the brain, which happens in about half of lung cancer patients, it went away. liz: if i'm somebody who has lung cancer and trying things, i am thinking dr. harvey berger's drug may be my last chance. fast tracking now, that is for leukemia types of drugs going through the blood. tell me about when that will be available for patients who other therapies have already failed. >> is for chronic myeloid leukemia. it is working its way through the redwood review in the u.s., also being reviewed in europe. we expect i expected to be avaio cancer patients by the first quarter of next year, perhaps a
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bit earlier but over the coming months it should be available. liz: on all your clothes and passionate and very emotional about these things, but we're hearing from analyst this could be a $1.5 billion per year revenue drug. that clears the line as a blockbuster drug. >> we've learned cancer medicines that really work that make a difference in the lives of cancer patients can be used over a prolonged period of time. leukemia, driving first value for patients, but importantly value. liz: when will i be able to give? >> we supply the medicine through expanded access, around the world, something like 20 countries where physicians today if they needed, they can get it for leukemia patients. liz: the first time you were with us in july of 2011, the
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stock up 96%, it has far outpaced the dow jones index up 37% pretty much the same amount of time quickly tell me a third drug, you have a third drug in the pipeline? >> hav we have a third and a foh drug. for other types of cancer, the same concept overcoming resistance, cancer that is hard to treat, we haven't said which one yet. we are applying the same methods we used. what distinguishes our drug and separates it from the big pharma companies is we are repeatedly able to take this method, these techniques and discover new cancer drugs. we are doing all of this, no partnerships now or in the future. liz: 1.5 million?
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>> at least. liz: at least. we have it right here. the miracle is brilliant doctors who work at ariad and you yourself. we wish you the best of luck giving hope to patients who have run out of hope. >> that is why we do this. liz: we brought him here in july of 2011, ticker symbol, we will be watching it so closely. 15 minutes before the closing bell rings. after the break we're bringing back the one senator swanson is dumping from his fund and where he is finding greener investment pasture. stay tuned. bob...
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oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're driing. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good.
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liz: let's get straight to sander with the big winners and losers for the entire week. sandra: starting out with your biggest winner, commodity wise, natural gas unchanged for the week, but for the day it is up. driving up demand for natural gas so the prices going up. in the precious metals, silver was your worst are former, pulling up weekly charts to give you an idea, just sold off the past couple of sessions falling 3% for the week. your stock movers in the dow only three finishing positive for the week.
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mcdonald's was one of them. one of the biggest gainers. boeing and wal-mart rounding out her top gainers. and then we got alcoa kicking off earnings season, this has been a major loser throughout the week can make it to the significant decline. sending weak global growth to have a selloff in that dow component. all the way down to chevron even though oil prices gained 2% for the week ending up with at&t, your biggest loser for the week, the weekly chart at&t down 6%. back to you. liz: thank you very much. let's bring back jim swanson, chief investment strategist. we need your number one moneymaking trade, what is it? >> they're good in commercial real estate and tremendous in it. we have overvaluation, hitting
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15 to 20 times cash flow, this is getting overvalued. i would ship the money into it. really fantastic margins and we are seeing companies trying to hold onto very high margins the way they're doing that is moving into storage companies they can do virtualization off-site and a big money saver. cheryl: a basket of a whole bunch of computing names, is that a way to get a lot of exposure in one fell swoop? >> i don't want anybody to think they can buy a naive basket. some companies are much more adept at this and called services and others. liz: you're really involved in many, would you be shutting those? >> it would be at evaluation. we have increasing jobs, reducing bankruptcies in these,
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the real secret is evaluation in the earnings has already sent this, you know what to make a move to regional banks and get very low prices to book value in the financial sector, that is what you would do. liz: when you hear all of the naysayers or the people pounding the table, either end of the spectrum, where do you fall when it comes to investing through the end of the year at least this election? >> election years are good for the market. if they said there will be a change for washington, but i would be positive on the market after october. we talked earlier, i am spooked by the whole thing. a weakening earnings environment with many downcycle but prepare yourself for the duration of this investment cycle which is based on the cycle of growth, corporate profits and consumer demand still strong. liz: jim swanson, msf chief
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financial strategist. listen, we're above 1425 on the s&p 500. that is the critical level. again, traders all hours they would have to close above 1425. right now about 1428, 1430, nothing above that would be bullish for monday. but we will watch it all the way to the end. now cracking a 20,000 mark on twitter, thank you. still trying to beat charlie gasparino. follow me after the break. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] what if you had thermal night-vision goggles,
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liz: citigroup has downgraded to names in a semiconductor sector getting hit by one .5%, seagate down one half of a percent, 4 million shares moving from the western digital, 16 million for seagate, right now both, not the worst thing in the world but when you get down greats like this, that isn't easy. looking at the dow jones does goes up five and a half points. i say it is the ashley webster effect. ashley: it is not that much of an effect. jumping surprisingly, jimmy diamond of jpmorgan said the housing recovery is in fact the market taking a breather. still a lot of uncertainty in the air. liz: let's go to lauren simonetti on the new york stock exchange working the floor, it is loser on the day for advance micro devices. in this hour yesterday out of
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the blue they did an early morning before earnings next week and today there you are, not a great day at all. lauren: you can see below $3, had not seen a number like that since march of 2009. ashley: let's look at the financials, we have been talking about them all day. the big banks led lower by jpmorgan chase and wells fargo on revenues. lauren: exactly. i guess record profits aren't enough. we were expecting a good earnings season from the bank. we got it essentially today, both of these companies are lower, jpmorgan as well as bank of america on the dow. liz: they fell in line with the big financials although i am not quite sure that is fair.

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